Conclusion

Abuse of Faith in Governance: Mystery of the Unasked Question (Part #15)

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With respect to the financial crisis of 2008, and other crises of faith indicated above (such as the expenses crisis of UK MPs), emphasis is now placed on the need to "rebuild trust", to "rebuild confidence", etc. The question is what this is expected to mean and how this is expected to be achieved. The challenge is ironically echoed by that in places like Afghanistan and Iraq where an emphasis has been placed on the war for "hearts and minds" as a means of "rebuilding community" and of "nation building". The special difficulty is that the processes whereby efforts are typically made to repair abuses of faith in governance are precisely those in which faith has now been lost. People have lost faith in the gestures made to that end which are now readily characterized as "tokenism" and "spin" -- of which it is prudent to be highly suspicious. Briefly, processes of governance have "shot themselves in the foot".

The "illusory" bubble, which governance has proven so complicit in sustaining (for good or for ill) at a time of multiple "real" crises, can indeed be understood in terms of the tale of the Emperor's New Clothes. A key question is however the cognitive condition of the "Little Boy" who asked of his mother in the tale: "Why is that man not wearing any clothes"? The current challenge for governance is the world population of "Little Boys" who are becoming increasingly restless in the face of the bizarre incompetence of governance. This is already engendering widespread despair, cynicism, nihilism and social unrest.

But the "Little Boy" suggests other insights from the tale of the Little Boy Who Cried Wolf -- especially when combined with the previous tale (Entangled Tales of Memetic Disaster: mutual implication of the Emperor and the Little Boy, 2009).

It is intriguing that the focus of remedial action in "rebuilding confidence" to counter unrest is framed in terms of eliciting "investment" and "lending". These operations are readily framed in financial terms -- easily losing the insight, highlighted by the financial crisis, that what is being invested or lent is "confidence" and "faith". Any (desperate) plea for resources can therefore be fruitfully explored as a plea for "confidence" and the subtle engagement this implies.

As noted, the financial crisis provides an admirable example in the light of the innovative formula of David X. Li with regard to the Gaussian copula function -- as described by Felix Salmon (Recipe for Disaster: the formula that killed Wall Street, Wired, 17.03, March 2009) -- or on the title page of the issue as The Secret Formula that Destroyed Wall Street. As Li had indicated in 2005 "Very few people understand the essence of the model" (Mark Whitehouse, Slices of Risk, The Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2005). As Salmon points out, the great merit for those who inadequately understood it -- from a lower dimensionality -- was that the formula:

... made it possible for traders to sell vast quantities of new securities, expanding financial markets to unimaginable levels.... And it became so deeply entrenched -- and was making people so much money -- that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored.... people used the Gaussian copula model to convince themselves they didn't have any risk at all, when in fact they just didn't have any risk 99 per cent of the time. The other 1 per cent of the time they blew up.

This makes very clear when an "unasked question" may be dramatically relevant -- if only 1 per cent of the time. Similarly any medical intervention may have a probability of succeeding 99 per cent of the time, as with any strategy. The question is implicit in the focus of the study by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable, 2007) and in Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns" (Unknown Undoing: challenge of incomprehensibility of systemic neglect, 2008).

The role of the "unasked question" -- in the absence of the "Little Boy" -- is especially interesting for any of the "faiths" identified. To what extent does failure to recognize and address such a question constitute for that faith effectively "living a lie" -- possibly even in the sense explored by Scott Peck (People of the Lie: the hope for healing human evil, 1983)? As a metasystemic challenge, this suggests that the "end times" of religious faiths may intimately related to such a question (Spontaneous Initiation of Armageddon: a heartfelt response to systemic negligence, 2004).

It might be assumed that the "unasked question" can be effectively addressed by "thinking the unthinkable", as originally recommended by futurist Herman Kahn. It remains a recurring theme for the intelligence and security communities. Current examples, consistent with some understandings of the lack of constraint on global policy implementation, might include:

• unilateral indulgence in a geo-engineering initiative reminiscent of Dr Strangelove
• using a nuclear strike to eliminate the Taliban in the Swat valley
• launching a pandemic to resolve population pressures on scarce resources

It is no longer a question of "thinking the unthinkable" in relation to governance but rather of "expecting the unthinkable" from governance. Given the revelations via WikiLeaks regarding the cover-up of matters in Iraq -- systematically denied over years by the coalition powers -- the key question is now what else remains classified, and systematically denied, of equivalent (or greater) significance? Who could be trusted to affirm that matters of such consequence are not concealed?

There are many indications that society is increasingly ungovernable as conventionally understood. Given his proven leadership track record and his promotion of "faith" in relation to leadership trhough his foundation, there may be a case for encouraging the election of Tony Blair to high office, perhaps as future president of Europe. Rather than invite child-like faith in appropriate governance, his appointment would avoid disillusionment and elicit an attitude of healthy vigilance in expectation of deception, as previously explored (Liberating Provocations: use of negative and paradoxical strategies, 2005). Blair might then prove to be a welcome cherry on the cake of 21st century democracy.

Trust in government has "suffered a severe breakdown" (BBC News, 23 January 2012)

Public trust in government has suffered a severe breakdown across the world, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer. Governments have been blamed for the financial and political chaos of 2011. In 17 of 25 countries surveyed governments are now trusted to do what is right by less than half those questioned. Overall trust in government fell by nine percentage points to 43%. Trust in business also fell, from 56% to 53%

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