Strategic implications of the relationship between incommensurable cognitive modalities
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There is no lack of recognition that the condition of society is complex and confusing -- even "surreal" (Surreal nature of current global governance as experienced, 2016; Global surreality farming vs planned reality framing? 2018). It is questionable whether strategic initiatives like the UN's Pact for the Future (2024) -- or the pattern of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) -- engages with this complexity appropriately and credibly (Thalif Deenm, UN Remains Paralyzed as "Rogue Nations" Violate Charter and Escalate War Crimes, Inter Press Service, 1 November 2024; Alon Ben-Meir, Has the United Nations Outlived its Usefulness? Inter Press Service, 1 November 2024)
There is a case for considering the patterns of cognitive modalities associated with understandings of conditions of change. One approach from a "Western" perspective is that of Christopher Alexander in identifying an array of some 254 elements in a pattern language. Its focus on tangible realities of the environment invites their use as a template to consider intangible realities of the psychosocial environment (5-fold Pattern Language, 1984). Gregory Bateson has famously warned: Break the pattern which connects the items of learning and you necessarily destroy all quality (Mind and Nature: a necessary unity, 1979, pp. 8-11).
The pattern meme continues to evoke commentary (Merlyn Driver, The Pattern that Connects: Gregory Bateson and the Ecology of Mind, Journal of Wild Culture, 27 October 2019; Jeffrey W. Bloom, Patterns That Connect: Rethinking Our Approach to Learning and Thinking, Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, April 1999; Paul Andersen and David Salomon, The Pattern That Connects, Acadia 2010; Søren Brier, Bateson and Peirce on the Pattern that Connects and the Sacred, Biosemiotics, 2008; Helene Finidori, Patterns that Connect, Proceedings of the 60th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, 1, 2016, 1).
With the strategic emphasis given to the political slogan -- It's the economy stupid (and its adaptations) -- does the focus on patterns invite yet another adaptation: It's the pattern stupid ? Paradoxically any implication of "stupidity", through failure of pattern recognition, is itself necessarily problematic in a cancel culture.
A contrasting approach from an "Eastern" perspective is the encoding of the conditions of change in the Chinese classic known as the Book of Changes or I Ching -- a focus of commentary by psychoanalyst Carl Jung (Jung and I Ching, Carl Jung Resources). The compilation distinguishes 64 conditions variously transforming into one another, and the subject of extensive commentary and interpretation. As previously noted, this articulation is readily deprecated from a Western perspective as being characteristic of outmoded divination. Ironically that critique can be contrasted with Western preferences for "modelling", readily seen as a contemporary mode of "divination" in its own right -- ironically highlighted by the questionable results of forecasting and polling models. Hence the merit of an approach encompassing contrasting frameworks, as argued by Susantha Goonatilake (Toward a Global Science: Mining Civilizational Knowledge, 1999). This has particular implications for "logic" (Coherent Reconciliation of Eastern and Western Patterns of Logic, 2023).
The merit of the 64-fold articulation is the detail it offers in contrast with "global models" such as World3 on which The Limits to Growth (1972) and similar initiatives have been based. Beyond the detail is the insight associated with the manner in which that detail is rendered comprehensible through metaphor -- a concern which has been completely absent from the strategic presentation of global models. Arguably this could be recognized as a reason for the lack of uptake of the conclusions of such modelling in practice -- as reflected in the currently documented failure of the SDGs, and the concerns of the UN in that regard (2024 SDG Report: Global Progress Alarmingly Insufficient, United Nations Sustainable Development Group, 28 June 2024)
The quest for explanatory patterns is bedevilled by premature closure on simplistic patterns of reality, resulting in the production of too many models that are often wrong and rarely useful, as argued by Brian Klaas (The Forces of Chance, Aeon, 29 October 2024). With regard to any comparison of "divination" with "modelling", Klaas notes the conclusion of the study by Mark Verhagen of the avoidance of predictions by the social sciences. Over a decade, only 12 articles out of 2,414 tried to make predictions in the American Economic Review. For the top political science journal, American Political Science Review, the figure was 4 out of 743. And in the American Journal of Sociology, not a single article made a concrete prediction (A Pragmatistâ-'s Guide to Using Prediction in the Social Sciences, Socius: sociological research for a dynamic world, 8, 2022).
In this context it is striking to note the extent to which the widespread emergence of "fascism" is readily cited as a matter of major concern. The current election of the acclaimed leader of the free world features one candidate characterizing the other as "fascist" (Is Kamala Harris right to call Donald Trump a fascist?, The Economist, 24 October 2024). The term has been applied more generally by Naomi Wolf (Weâ-'ve reached â-"e;step tenâ-' of the 10 steps to fascism, The End of America, 2008). The framing is characteristic of ongoing conflicts (Odette Yousef, The Russian-Ukraine conflict could strengthen neo-fascist groups in both countries, NPR, 5 March 2022; Jonathan Cook, How the war on Gaza exposed Israeli and western fascism, Middle East Eye, 13 September 2024). Legislative measures are now widely made to prohibit the display of the Swastika, despite limited ability to recognize its variants or the traditional symbolic significance of the pattern.
The concern here is with the curious collective inability to interrelate disparate cognitive modalities, notably those associated with logic and emotion -- rendered even more problematic by the role of spiritual or intuitive dimensions, and the recourse to concrete action by contrast. This "disconnect" is only too evident in political discourse evoking emotion, the strategic options it frames, and the values righteously cited in justification for any action. All such modalities are only too evidently at play in the current campaigns for the election of the leader of the free world -- with little ability to disentangle them or recognize conditions in which they are appropriate.
Beyond the more comprehensible disconnect between logic and emotion, the current election campaign features a "spiritual" dimension, as highlighted from a Christian perspective (Pope urges Catholics to pick 'lesser evil' between Trump and Harris, BBC, 14 September 2024). Indeed, beyond logic or